Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
no. 429
If you were to shuffle a deck of cards and draw out ten cards, the chances of the sequence you drew coming up are in the trillions, no matter what the cards are. If you drew out an ordered suit, it would be astonishing, but the chances are the same as any other set of ten cards. The meaning is a human construct.David McRaney, discussing the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, in his book, You Are Not So Smart (p42)
Hey, you want to see the truth of this first hand? Play poker, but make the worst hands the winners.
Monday, June 23, 2014
no. 428
Punditry is an industry built on confirmation bias. Rush Limbaugh and Keith Olbermann, Glenn Beck and Arianna Huffington, Rachel Maddow and Ann Coulter - These people provide fuel for beliefs, they pre-filter the world to match existing worldviews. If their filter is like your filter, you love them. If it isn't, you hate them. You watch them not for information, but for confirmation.David McRaney, discussing confirmation bias in his book, You Are Not So Smart (p28)
Sunday, June 22, 2014
no. 427
Remember, there's always someone out there willing to sell eyeballs to to advertisers by offering a guaranteed supply of people looking for validation. Ask yourself if you are that audience. In science, you move closer to the truth by seeking evidence to the contrary. Perhaps the same method should inform your opinions as well.David McRaney, You Are Not So Smart, p. 31
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Saturday, June 21, 2014
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